NBA Free Agency: The Battle for LeBron

When LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers went down in six games to the Boston Celtics, it potentially changed the landscape of the NBA for years to come. It is no secret that every team with even the slightest prayer to land LeBron James will be trying to do so in the off-season. He very well could be the most coveted free agent in the history of pro sports. And to make it more interesting, this could be the best free agent class to ever hit the NBA market. The question is... Where will LeBron James end up? And what impact will it have on the rest of the premier free agents?

What could keep LeBron James in Cleveland?


LeBron James found himself in an unusual situation when he came into the NBA. Not only was he touted as the next Michael Jordan before he was old enough to sign a contract, but he was drafted by his hometown team. Having the chance to play in his hometown was a great opportunity for LeBron, and it still is. It is hard enough to leave the only team you have ever played for. For LeBron, he not only would have to leave his team, but his hometown too.
There is still something to be said for playing your entire career for one franchise. LeBron James knows that. Is it enough to keep him in Cleveland? Only he knows. I still think the odds have to be on LeBron staying in Cleveland. When I thought the Cavs would cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals, I said the chances of LeBron staying in Cleveland were 75%. Now that they have gone out in the second round, I think that number drops to 55%.

What would push LeBron out of Cleveland?

LeBron can play anywhere he wants. And while money is important to him, he is going to make insane amounts of money no matter where he plays. What LeBron wants more than anything is to win.
He pushed the Cavs front office to make moves to build a contender. They did that. They went out and got Antwan Jamison. Here is the problem... Jamison is past his prime. But the problem is not Jamison. The problem is that Cleveland is full of key players who are not getting any younger, and have proven that they are not good enough to win a championship. The core of the Cavs right now is LeBron James, Antwan Jamison, Mo Williams, Shaq and Anderson Varejao. Shaq is a free agent who may or may not be back with the Cavs. Mo Williams is a very good player, but he is not going to carry a team. Varejao is a very good defender, but that is about it. Jamison is a very good player, but he is showing signs of slowing down. The Cavs are not in a position to go out and add a big free agent signing to their team. With that in mind, LeBron James has to consider that the team around him in Cleveland is just not good enough to win a championship.

If he leaves Cleveland, where could LeBron end up?


New York: 

The city of New York has set the bar in a very simple place for this off-season. LeBron or bust. Sure they would be okay if they landed two other big free agents. But that is not what they want. And that is not what they have been planning for. Donnie Walsh unloaded every contract that he possibly could in order to make cap space to sign LeBron James and another max free agent this off-season.
New York offers LeBron something that no other team can offer him. The chance to play in New York presents tremendous opportunities. It is the largest media market in the world. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar. And playing there would make LeBron James millions of dollars that he can not make anywhere else. But can the Knicks win?
If LeBron goes to New York, Chris Bosh will likely follow him there. But what kind of a team would they really have? You can't knock any LeBron James team. And you certainly have to consider a team lead by LeBron and Bosh as a contender. But what else do they have? Danillo Gallanari has shown that he has the ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, but he has not developed into the overall player the Knicks were hoping for. They thought they were drafting Dirk Nowitzki. They have Eddy Curry there for one more year, but he is not a major factor. The point here is very simple. If LeBron James and Chris Bosh choose to go to New York, they better plan on carrying 99% of the load, because the Knicks will not have much of a supporting cast for them.

Miami:

I think the Heat have the best shot of any team (other than Cleveland) of landing LeBron James. They present a few things that no other team does. First, they give him the chance to play with not only one other superstar, but two. The Heat are the only team in the NBA that has the ability to sign three max free agents (including Dwyane Wade). They can put a team on the floor that would have the best one-two-three punch in the league. A core of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire would have to be considered that favorite to win championship after championship for years to come. LeBron could join up with Dwyane Wade in Miami, add another max free agent, and potentially dominate the NBA landscape for the rest of their careers. Miami would also have the room to bring back Udois Haslem with their mid-level exception, and piece together a very good team with guys who are hungry for a championship. The chance to be living a few minutes from South Beach certainly sweetens the pot of LeBron too.
That is what Miami can offer LeBron on the surface. But Miami also has an ace in the hole. They have a proven winner who is without question one of the best coaches in NBA history. If Pat Riley has to come back to the bench in order to land LeBron James, you better believe that he will. And that may be what puts Miami over the top. Any other coach that LeBron will have the chance to play for can not even attempt to compare their resume with Pat Riley's. Do you smell a dynasty emerging in Miami?

Chicago:


The Bulls are a very interesting option for LeBron James. They have a solid young core that can continue to grow. But does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built? Does he want everything he does to be measured against Jordan? Does he want to play in a place where he would have to go so far above and beyond what he could reasonably expect to accomplish just to be able to be mentioned in the same sentence as Michael Jordan?
There is a lot of talk about the Bulls enticing John Calapari to leave Kentucky and come coach the Bulls. And part of the reason for it is the close relationship that LeBron James and John Calapari have. I just don't see it happening. I don't see John Calapari leaving Kentucky after one season. And I don't see LeBron wanting to play in Michael Jordan's shadow forever. Bull fans should prepare themselves for a great free agent signing that won't be LeBron James.

New Jersey:


LeBron James would love to play in Brooklyn. He would love to play for Jay-Z. But the Nets won't be playing in Brooklyn for at least a couple of years. And the Nets don't exactly have the greatest team. They flirted with the worst record in NBA history this year. And though Devin Harris, Terrance Williams, and Brook Lopez are all very good young players, their not Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire. Their not even Joe Johnson. I just don't see LeBron choosing New Jersey when he can go anywhere.

What do I think LeBron will do?


LeBron will opt out of his contract in Cleveland and become a free agent on July 1, 2010. LeBron will visit the Knicks, Heat, Nets, Bulls and probably others. The Cavs still have to be the favorite to land LeBron, but I could see their hopes of retaining him diminishing very quickly. If he leaves Cleveland, the teams with the best chance of landing LeBron James are Miami, New York, Chicago and New Jersey in that order.


Stay tuned for my full free agency blog. It will be posted following the NBA Finals.