Who are these Boston Celtics? How are they winning?

Before the season began, the Boston Celtics were arguably the best team in the NBA on paper. But as everyone said, that is on paper. Paper does not win games. Athletes win games. And the consensus on the Celtics was that they were too old and injury prone to be able to compete.

Over the course of the season, the Celtics dealt with plenty of injuries. Going into the playoffs, it appeared the Celtics would sneak by a Miami Heat team that was lacking talent to support Dwyane Wade, and then lay down to the LeBron James lead Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs were the best team in the NBA. They had the best player in the NBA. And they had finally put a team around him that could help him win a championship. Beating the Celtics was nothing more than an assumed step on the road to the Larry O'Brian trophy.

And then it happened. The Celtics came out in game one and looked like the team to beat in the first half. But they could not hold on. The Cavs dominated the second half and survived game one with a win. Again, everyone said it was a fluke. The Cavs were rusty. The Celtics were rested. Game two would look like the second half of game one. Or not... The Celtics came out and showed the world that they were coming to play. That anything less than a championship was a disappointment. That they were not going to bow down to King James. The Celtics stole game two in Cleveland and took over home-court in the series. Yet the Celtics were still dismissed.

It did not take long for the Cavs to come back strong. They went into Boston and took back home-court with a game three win. The Celtics tied the series with a win at home in game four, and were ready to head back to Cleveland.

And then it happened. The Celtics left no doubt. They went back to Cleveland and wiped the floor with the Cavs, winning game five 120-88. The Celtics now lead the series 3-2, and the Cavs had their backs against the wall. They had to go on the road and steal another one in Boston to force a game seven.
The picture says it all...

LeBron James and the Cavs were going back to Cleveland. Not to play a game seven, but to clean out their lockers. The Boston Celtics had knocked off the best team in the NBA.

But there was more to come. With the Cavs out of the playoffs, the Orlando Magic instantly became the team to beat in the East. They had won fourteen straight games including sweeping the first two rounds of the playoffs (eight games). They had not only won those games, but dominated them the way a championship team should.

The Magic had a long rest before their series with the Celtics, while the Celtics had a few days to prepare. And it showed. The Celtics came out and looked like a team on fire, while the Magic looked rusty, and unready to compete. The Celtics stole game one in Orlando.  

Most of us wrote it off as rust, and again, assumed the Celtics had finally met their match. There was not way they were knocking off the Orlando Magic. As game two approached, the Magic knew it was pretty much a must win game. They took the floor, and found themselves down 2-0 when  it was over. The Celtics took not one, but both of the first two games of the series in Orlando.

Tonight they go back to Boston up 2-0. If they can win game three, I don't think anyone would be able to doubt them any longer. In the history of the NBA, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. But Orlando is still a tremendous team. When they are at their best, they can beat anyone.

I think you know who the Boston Celtics are by now. But how did a team that struggled down the stretch and fell to the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference come out and win the way that they have? How did they suddenly become a contender again? The answer is very simple. The NBA wanted them to.

The NBA did not ask the referees to call the games in Boston's favor. They did not do anything to directly affect the games the Celtics played. They gave everyone a level playing field. That level field just favors the Boston Celtics far more than any other team.

During the regular season, teams regularly play multiple games the the same number of nights. They go on long road trips, and have to tough out game after game. In the playoffs, teams always have at least one day of rest between games. They never play back to back games. With the oldest team in the NBA, the Boston Celtics took advantage of the rest. After a long and tiring season, the older teams have to find a second win for the playoffs. Their almost out of gas. The NBA give that to them with the way that they schedule games. If the games were played back to back, you could very well be watching the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. The NBA is set up for veteran teams to win in the playoffs. A team like the Thunder could have done very well without the rest that was afforded to them. The Lakers and Celtics would have likely crumbled from the wear and tear of back to back games.

I don't mean to take anything away from the Celtics. They have earned every win. And at this point, it looks like they will be matching up with the Lakers for what will be a very veteran NBA Finals.

Updated LeBron James Percentages

Cleveland Cavaliers: 40%

The Cavs chances took a bit of a nose dive just days into their off-season. But they still have to be the favorite to retain their superstar forward. That could change quickly though.

Miami Heat: 25%

The Heat can offer LeBron something that no other team can... Three Max Players. The Heat could potentially end up with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. And if Pat Riley has to come back to the bench to make it happen, you better believe that he will.

Chicago Bulls: 25%

The Bulls are in a great position to land LeBron. They could pair LeBron with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and potentially Chris Bosh as well. The question is, does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built?

New York Knicks: 9%

The Knicks suck! They have very little talent. But they do have cap space for two max free agents. If LeBron wants to go to the biggest media market, New York is a no-brainer. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar.

Los Angeles Clippers: 0%

The Clipper have no chance of landing King James. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Any questions?

All Other Teams: 1%

The Nets will make a run at LeBron, but after not securing the first pick in the draft, their chances are slim to none. They don't have much of a team, and they don't have John Wall coming in. Their new owner and Jay-Z will give it their best shot though.

Marc Cuban could move some players to make cap space for LeBron, but it is just not likely to happen.

Any other team signing LeBron James would be a total shock. But you never know...

NBA Free Agency: The Battle for LeBron

When LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers went down in six games to the Boston Celtics, it potentially changed the landscape of the NBA for years to come. It is no secret that every team with even the slightest prayer to land LeBron James will be trying to do so in the off-season. He very well could be the most coveted free agent in the history of pro sports. And to make it more interesting, this could be the best free agent class to ever hit the NBA market. The question is... Where will LeBron James end up? And what impact will it have on the rest of the premier free agents?

What could keep LeBron James in Cleveland?


LeBron James found himself in an unusual situation when he came into the NBA. Not only was he touted as the next Michael Jordan before he was old enough to sign a contract, but he was drafted by his hometown team. Having the chance to play in his hometown was a great opportunity for LeBron, and it still is. It is hard enough to leave the only team you have ever played for. For LeBron, he not only would have to leave his team, but his hometown too.
There is still something to be said for playing your entire career for one franchise. LeBron James knows that. Is it enough to keep him in Cleveland? Only he knows. I still think the odds have to be on LeBron staying in Cleveland. When I thought the Cavs would cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals, I said the chances of LeBron staying in Cleveland were 75%. Now that they have gone out in the second round, I think that number drops to 55%.

What would push LeBron out of Cleveland?

LeBron can play anywhere he wants. And while money is important to him, he is going to make insane amounts of money no matter where he plays. What LeBron wants more than anything is to win.
He pushed the Cavs front office to make moves to build a contender. They did that. They went out and got Antwan Jamison. Here is the problem... Jamison is past his prime. But the problem is not Jamison. The problem is that Cleveland is full of key players who are not getting any younger, and have proven that they are not good enough to win a championship. The core of the Cavs right now is LeBron James, Antwan Jamison, Mo Williams, Shaq and Anderson Varejao. Shaq is a free agent who may or may not be back with the Cavs. Mo Williams is a very good player, but he is not going to carry a team. Varejao is a very good defender, but that is about it. Jamison is a very good player, but he is showing signs of slowing down. The Cavs are not in a position to go out and add a big free agent signing to their team. With that in mind, LeBron James has to consider that the team around him in Cleveland is just not good enough to win a championship.

If he leaves Cleveland, where could LeBron end up?


New York: 

The city of New York has set the bar in a very simple place for this off-season. LeBron or bust. Sure they would be okay if they landed two other big free agents. But that is not what they want. And that is not what they have been planning for. Donnie Walsh unloaded every contract that he possibly could in order to make cap space to sign LeBron James and another max free agent this off-season.
New York offers LeBron something that no other team can offer him. The chance to play in New York presents tremendous opportunities. It is the largest media market in the world. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar. And playing there would make LeBron James millions of dollars that he can not make anywhere else. But can the Knicks win?
If LeBron goes to New York, Chris Bosh will likely follow him there. But what kind of a team would they really have? You can't knock any LeBron James team. And you certainly have to consider a team lead by LeBron and Bosh as a contender. But what else do they have? Danillo Gallanari has shown that he has the ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, but he has not developed into the overall player the Knicks were hoping for. They thought they were drafting Dirk Nowitzki. They have Eddy Curry there for one more year, but he is not a major factor. The point here is very simple. If LeBron James and Chris Bosh choose to go to New York, they better plan on carrying 99% of the load, because the Knicks will not have much of a supporting cast for them.

Miami:

I think the Heat have the best shot of any team (other than Cleveland) of landing LeBron James. They present a few things that no other team does. First, they give him the chance to play with not only one other superstar, but two. The Heat are the only team in the NBA that has the ability to sign three max free agents (including Dwyane Wade). They can put a team on the floor that would have the best one-two-three punch in the league. A core of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire would have to be considered that favorite to win championship after championship for years to come. LeBron could join up with Dwyane Wade in Miami, add another max free agent, and potentially dominate the NBA landscape for the rest of their careers. Miami would also have the room to bring back Udois Haslem with their mid-level exception, and piece together a very good team with guys who are hungry for a championship. The chance to be living a few minutes from South Beach certainly sweetens the pot of LeBron too.
That is what Miami can offer LeBron on the surface. But Miami also has an ace in the hole. They have a proven winner who is without question one of the best coaches in NBA history. If Pat Riley has to come back to the bench in order to land LeBron James, you better believe that he will. And that may be what puts Miami over the top. Any other coach that LeBron will have the chance to play for can not even attempt to compare their resume with Pat Riley's. Do you smell a dynasty emerging in Miami?

Chicago:


The Bulls are a very interesting option for LeBron James. They have a solid young core that can continue to grow. But does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built? Does he want everything he does to be measured against Jordan? Does he want to play in a place where he would have to go so far above and beyond what he could reasonably expect to accomplish just to be able to be mentioned in the same sentence as Michael Jordan?
There is a lot of talk about the Bulls enticing John Calapari to leave Kentucky and come coach the Bulls. And part of the reason for it is the close relationship that LeBron James and John Calapari have. I just don't see it happening. I don't see John Calapari leaving Kentucky after one season. And I don't see LeBron wanting to play in Michael Jordan's shadow forever. Bull fans should prepare themselves for a great free agent signing that won't be LeBron James.

New Jersey:


LeBron James would love to play in Brooklyn. He would love to play for Jay-Z. But the Nets won't be playing in Brooklyn for at least a couple of years. And the Nets don't exactly have the greatest team. They flirted with the worst record in NBA history this year. And though Devin Harris, Terrance Williams, and Brook Lopez are all very good young players, their not Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire. Their not even Joe Johnson. I just don't see LeBron choosing New Jersey when he can go anywhere.

What do I think LeBron will do?


LeBron will opt out of his contract in Cleveland and become a free agent on July 1, 2010. LeBron will visit the Knicks, Heat, Nets, Bulls and probably others. The Cavs still have to be the favorite to land LeBron, but I could see their hopes of retaining him diminishing very quickly. If he leaves Cleveland, the teams with the best chance of landing LeBron James are Miami, New York, Chicago and New Jersey in that order.


Stay tuned for my full free agency blog. It will be posted following the NBA Finals.