Before the season began, the Boston Celtics were arguably the best team in the NBA on paper. But as everyone said, that is on paper. Paper does not win games. Athletes win games. And the consensus on the Celtics was that they were too old and injury prone to be able to compete.
Over the course of the season, the Celtics dealt with plenty of injuries. Going into the playoffs, it appeared the Celtics would sneak by a Miami Heat team that was lacking talent to support Dwyane Wade, and then lay down to the LeBron James lead Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs were the best team in the NBA. They had the best player in the NBA. And they had finally put a team around him that could help him win a championship. Beating the Celtics was nothing more than an assumed step on the road to the Larry O'Brian trophy.
And then it happened. The Celtics came out in game one and looked like the team to beat in the first half. But they could not hold on. The Cavs dominated the second half and survived game one with a win. Again, everyone said it was a fluke. The Cavs were rusty. The Celtics were rested. Game two would look like the second half of game one. Or not... The Celtics came out and showed the world that they were coming to play. That anything less than a championship was a disappointment. That they were not going to bow down to King James. The Celtics stole game two in Cleveland and took over home-court in the series. Yet the Celtics were still dismissed.
It did not take long for the Cavs to come back strong. They went into Boston and took back home-court with a game three win. The Celtics tied the series with a win at home in game four, and were ready to head back to Cleveland.
And then it happened. The Celtics left no doubt. They went back to Cleveland and wiped the floor with the Cavs, winning game five 120-88. The Celtics now lead the series 3-2, and the Cavs had their backs against the wall. They had to go on the road and steal another one in Boston to force a game seven.
The picture says it all...
LeBron James and the Cavs were going back to Cleveland. Not to play a game seven, but to clean out their lockers. The Boston Celtics had knocked off the best team in the NBA.
But there was more to come. With the Cavs out of the playoffs, the Orlando Magic instantly became the team to beat in the East. They had won fourteen straight games including sweeping the first two rounds of the playoffs (eight games). They had not only won those games, but dominated them the way a championship team should.
The Magic had a long rest before their series with the Celtics, while the Celtics had a few days to prepare. And it showed. The Celtics came out and looked like a team on fire, while the Magic looked rusty, and unready to compete. The Celtics stole game one in Orlando.
Most of us wrote it off as rust, and again, assumed the Celtics had finally met their match. There was not way they were knocking off the Orlando Magic. As game two approached, the Magic knew it was pretty much a must win game. They took the floor, and found themselves down 2-0 when it was over. The Celtics took not one, but both of the first two games of the series in Orlando.
Tonight they go back to Boston up 2-0. If they can win game three, I don't think anyone would be able to doubt them any longer. In the history of the NBA, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. But Orlando is still a tremendous team. When they are at their best, they can beat anyone.
I think you know who the Boston Celtics are by now. But how did a team that struggled down the stretch and fell to the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference come out and win the way that they have? How did they suddenly become a contender again? The answer is very simple. The NBA wanted them to.
The NBA did not ask the referees to call the games in Boston's favor. They did not do anything to directly affect the games the Celtics played. They gave everyone a level playing field. That level field just favors the Boston Celtics far more than any other team.
During the regular season, teams regularly play multiple games the the same number of nights. They go on long road trips, and have to tough out game after game. In the playoffs, teams always have at least one day of rest between games. They never play back to back games. With the oldest team in the NBA, the Boston Celtics took advantage of the rest. After a long and tiring season, the older teams have to find a second win for the playoffs. Their almost out of gas. The NBA give that to them with the way that they schedule games. If the games were played back to back, you could very well be watching the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. The NBA is set up for veteran teams to win in the playoffs. A team like the Thunder could have done very well without the rest that was afforded to them. The Lakers and Celtics would have likely crumbled from the wear and tear of back to back games.
I don't mean to take anything away from the Celtics. They have earned every win. And at this point, it looks like they will be matching up with the Lakers for what will be a very veteran NBA Finals.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Updated LeBron James Percentages
Cleveland Cavaliers: 40%
The Cavs chances took a bit of a nose dive just days into their off-season. But they still have to be the favorite to retain their superstar forward. That could change quickly though.
Miami Heat: 25%
The Heat can offer LeBron something that no other team can... Three Max Players. The Heat could potentially end up with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. And if Pat Riley has to come back to the bench to make it happen, you better believe that he will.
Chicago Bulls: 25%
The Bulls are in a great position to land LeBron. They could pair LeBron with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and potentially Chris Bosh as well. The question is, does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built?
New York Knicks: 9%
The Knicks suck! They have very little talent. But they do have cap space for two max free agents. If LeBron wants to go to the biggest media market, New York is a no-brainer. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar.
Los Angeles Clippers: 0%
The Clipper have no chance of landing King James. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Any questions?
All Other Teams: 1%
The Nets will make a run at LeBron, but after not securing the first pick in the draft, their chances are slim to none. They don't have much of a team, and they don't have John Wall coming in. Their new owner and Jay-Z will give it their best shot though.
Marc Cuban could move some players to make cap space for LeBron, but it is just not likely to happen.
Any other team signing LeBron James would be a total shock. But you never know...
The Cavs chances took a bit of a nose dive just days into their off-season. But they still have to be the favorite to retain their superstar forward. That could change quickly though.
Miami Heat: 25%
The Heat can offer LeBron something that no other team can... Three Max Players. The Heat could potentially end up with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. And if Pat Riley has to come back to the bench to make it happen, you better believe that he will.
Chicago Bulls: 25%
The Bulls are in a great position to land LeBron. They could pair LeBron with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and potentially Chris Bosh as well. The question is, does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built?
New York Knicks: 9%
The Knicks suck! They have very little talent. But they do have cap space for two max free agents. If LeBron wants to go to the biggest media market, New York is a no-brainer. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar.
Los Angeles Clippers: 0%
The Clipper have no chance of landing King James. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Any questions?
All Other Teams: 1%
The Nets will make a run at LeBron, but after not securing the first pick in the draft, their chances are slim to none. They don't have much of a team, and they don't have John Wall coming in. Their new owner and Jay-Z will give it their best shot though.
Marc Cuban could move some players to make cap space for LeBron, but it is just not likely to happen.
Any other team signing LeBron James would be a total shock. But you never know...
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Friday, May 14, 2010
NBA Free Agency: The Battle for LeBron
When LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers went down in six games to the Boston Celtics, it potentially changed the landscape of the NBA for years to come. It is no secret that every team with even the slightest prayer to land LeBron James will be trying to do so in the off-season. He very well could be the most coveted free agent in the history of pro sports. And to make it more interesting, this could be the best free agent class to ever hit the NBA market. The question is... Where will LeBron James end up? And what impact will it have on the rest of the premier free agents?
What could keep LeBron James in Cleveland?
LeBron James found himself in an unusual situation when he came into the NBA. Not only was he touted as the next Michael Jordan before he was old enough to sign a contract, but he was drafted by his hometown team. Having the chance to play in his hometown was a great opportunity for LeBron, and it still is. It is hard enough to leave the only team you have ever played for. For LeBron, he not only would have to leave his team, but his hometown too.
There is still something to be said for playing your entire career for one franchise. LeBron James knows that. Is it enough to keep him in Cleveland? Only he knows. I still think the odds have to be on LeBron staying in Cleveland. When I thought the Cavs would cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals, I said the chances of LeBron staying in Cleveland were 75%. Now that they have gone out in the second round, I think that number drops to 55%.
What would push LeBron out of Cleveland?
LeBron can play anywhere he wants. And while money is important to him, he is going to make insane amounts of money no matter where he plays. What LeBron wants more than anything is to win.
He pushed the Cavs front office to make moves to build a contender. They did that. They went out and got Antwan Jamison. Here is the problem... Jamison is past his prime. But the problem is not Jamison. The problem is that Cleveland is full of key players who are not getting any younger, and have proven that they are not good enough to win a championship. The core of the Cavs right now is LeBron James, Antwan Jamison, Mo Williams, Shaq and Anderson Varejao. Shaq is a free agent who may or may not be back with the Cavs. Mo Williams is a very good player, but he is not going to carry a team. Varejao is a very good defender, but that is about it. Jamison is a very good player, but he is showing signs of slowing down. The Cavs are not in a position to go out and add a big free agent signing to their team. With that in mind, LeBron James has to consider that the team around him in Cleveland is just not good enough to win a championship.
If he leaves Cleveland, where could LeBron end up?
New York:
The city of New York has set the bar in a very simple place for this off-season. LeBron or bust. Sure they would be okay if they landed two other big free agents. But that is not what they want. And that is not what they have been planning for. Donnie Walsh unloaded every contract that he possibly could in order to make cap space to sign LeBron James and another max free agent this off-season.
New York offers LeBron something that no other team can offer him. The chance to play in New York presents tremendous opportunities. It is the largest media market in the world. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar. And playing there would make LeBron James millions of dollars that he can not make anywhere else. But can the Knicks win?
If LeBron goes to New York, Chris Bosh will likely follow him there. But what kind of a team would they really have? You can't knock any LeBron James team. And you certainly have to consider a team lead by LeBron and Bosh as a contender. But what else do they have? Danillo Gallanari has shown that he has the ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, but he has not developed into the overall player the Knicks were hoping for. They thought they were drafting Dirk Nowitzki. They have Eddy Curry there for one more year, but he is not a major factor. The point here is very simple. If LeBron James and Chris Bosh choose to go to New York, they better plan on carrying 99% of the load, because the Knicks will not have much of a supporting cast for them.
Miami:
I think the Heat have the best shot of any team (other than Cleveland) of landing LeBron James. They present a few things that no other team does. First, they give him the chance to play with not only one other superstar, but two. The Heat are the only team in the NBA that has the ability to sign three max free agents (including Dwyane Wade). They can put a team on the floor that would have the best one-two-three punch in the league. A core of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire would have to be considered that favorite to win championship after championship for years to come. LeBron could join up with Dwyane Wade in Miami, add another max free agent, and potentially dominate the NBA landscape for the rest of their careers. Miami would also have the room to bring back Udois Haslem with their mid-level exception, and piece together a very good team with guys who are hungry for a championship. The chance to be living a few minutes from South Beach certainly sweetens the pot of LeBron too.
That is what Miami can offer LeBron on the surface. But Miami also has an ace in the hole. They have a proven winner who is without question one of the best coaches in NBA history. If Pat Riley has to come back to the bench in order to land LeBron James, you better believe that he will. And that may be what puts Miami over the top. Any other coach that LeBron will have the chance to play for can not even attempt to compare their resume with Pat Riley's. Do you smell a dynasty emerging in Miami?
Chicago:
The Bulls are a very interesting option for LeBron James. They have a solid young core that can continue to grow. But does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built? Does he want everything he does to be measured against Jordan? Does he want to play in a place where he would have to go so far above and beyond what he could reasonably expect to accomplish just to be able to be mentioned in the same sentence as Michael Jordan?
There is a lot of talk about the Bulls enticing John Calapari to leave Kentucky and come coach the Bulls. And part of the reason for it is the close relationship that LeBron James and John Calapari have. I just don't see it happening. I don't see John Calapari leaving Kentucky after one season. And I don't see LeBron wanting to play in Michael Jordan's shadow forever. Bull fans should prepare themselves for a great free agent signing that won't be LeBron James.
New Jersey:
LeBron James would love to play in Brooklyn. He would love to play for Jay-Z. But the Nets won't be playing in Brooklyn for at least a couple of years. And the Nets don't exactly have the greatest team. They flirted with the worst record in NBA history this year. And though Devin Harris, Terrance Williams, and Brook Lopez are all very good young players, their not Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire. Their not even Joe Johnson. I just don't see LeBron choosing New Jersey when he can go anywhere.
What do I think LeBron will do?
LeBron will opt out of his contract in Cleveland and become a free agent on July 1, 2010. LeBron will visit the Knicks, Heat, Nets, Bulls and probably others. The Cavs still have to be the favorite to land LeBron, but I could see their hopes of retaining him diminishing very quickly. If he leaves Cleveland, the teams with the best chance of landing LeBron James are Miami, New York, Chicago and New Jersey in that order.
Stay tuned for my full free agency blog. It will be posted following the NBA Finals.
What could keep LeBron James in Cleveland?
LeBron James found himself in an unusual situation when he came into the NBA. Not only was he touted as the next Michael Jordan before he was old enough to sign a contract, but he was drafted by his hometown team. Having the chance to play in his hometown was a great opportunity for LeBron, and it still is. It is hard enough to leave the only team you have ever played for. For LeBron, he not only would have to leave his team, but his hometown too.
There is still something to be said for playing your entire career for one franchise. LeBron James knows that. Is it enough to keep him in Cleveland? Only he knows. I still think the odds have to be on LeBron staying in Cleveland. When I thought the Cavs would cruise to the Eastern Conference Finals, I said the chances of LeBron staying in Cleveland were 75%. Now that they have gone out in the second round, I think that number drops to 55%.
What would push LeBron out of Cleveland?
LeBron can play anywhere he wants. And while money is important to him, he is going to make insane amounts of money no matter where he plays. What LeBron wants more than anything is to win.
He pushed the Cavs front office to make moves to build a contender. They did that. They went out and got Antwan Jamison. Here is the problem... Jamison is past his prime. But the problem is not Jamison. The problem is that Cleveland is full of key players who are not getting any younger, and have proven that they are not good enough to win a championship. The core of the Cavs right now is LeBron James, Antwan Jamison, Mo Williams, Shaq and Anderson Varejao. Shaq is a free agent who may or may not be back with the Cavs. Mo Williams is a very good player, but he is not going to carry a team. Varejao is a very good defender, but that is about it. Jamison is a very good player, but he is showing signs of slowing down. The Cavs are not in a position to go out and add a big free agent signing to their team. With that in mind, LeBron James has to consider that the team around him in Cleveland is just not good enough to win a championship.
If he leaves Cleveland, where could LeBron end up?
New York:
The city of New York has set the bar in a very simple place for this off-season. LeBron or bust. Sure they would be okay if they landed two other big free agents. But that is not what they want. And that is not what they have been planning for. Donnie Walsh unloaded every contract that he possibly could in order to make cap space to sign LeBron James and another max free agent this off-season.
New York offers LeBron something that no other team can offer him. The chance to play in New York presents tremendous opportunities. It is the largest media market in the world. New York is the only place where a superstar can be more than a superstar. And playing there would make LeBron James millions of dollars that he can not make anywhere else. But can the Knicks win?
If LeBron goes to New York, Chris Bosh will likely follow him there. But what kind of a team would they really have? You can't knock any LeBron James team. And you certainly have to consider a team lead by LeBron and Bosh as a contender. But what else do they have? Danillo Gallanari has shown that he has the ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, but he has not developed into the overall player the Knicks were hoping for. They thought they were drafting Dirk Nowitzki. They have Eddy Curry there for one more year, but he is not a major factor. The point here is very simple. If LeBron James and Chris Bosh choose to go to New York, they better plan on carrying 99% of the load, because the Knicks will not have much of a supporting cast for them.
Miami:
I think the Heat have the best shot of any team (other than Cleveland) of landing LeBron James. They present a few things that no other team does. First, they give him the chance to play with not only one other superstar, but two. The Heat are the only team in the NBA that has the ability to sign three max free agents (including Dwyane Wade). They can put a team on the floor that would have the best one-two-three punch in the league. A core of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire would have to be considered that favorite to win championship after championship for years to come. LeBron could join up with Dwyane Wade in Miami, add another max free agent, and potentially dominate the NBA landscape for the rest of their careers. Miami would also have the room to bring back Udois Haslem with their mid-level exception, and piece together a very good team with guys who are hungry for a championship. The chance to be living a few minutes from South Beach certainly sweetens the pot of LeBron too.
That is what Miami can offer LeBron on the surface. But Miami also has an ace in the hole. They have a proven winner who is without question one of the best coaches in NBA history. If Pat Riley has to come back to the bench in order to land LeBron James, you better believe that he will. And that may be what puts Miami over the top. Any other coach that LeBron will have the chance to play for can not even attempt to compare their resume with Pat Riley's. Do you smell a dynasty emerging in Miami?
Chicago:
The Bulls are a very interesting option for LeBron James. They have a solid young core that can continue to grow. But does LeBron want to play in the house that Michael built? Does he want everything he does to be measured against Jordan? Does he want to play in a place where he would have to go so far above and beyond what he could reasonably expect to accomplish just to be able to be mentioned in the same sentence as Michael Jordan?
There is a lot of talk about the Bulls enticing John Calapari to leave Kentucky and come coach the Bulls. And part of the reason for it is the close relationship that LeBron James and John Calapari have. I just don't see it happening. I don't see John Calapari leaving Kentucky after one season. And I don't see LeBron wanting to play in Michael Jordan's shadow forever. Bull fans should prepare themselves for a great free agent signing that won't be LeBron James.
New Jersey:
LeBron James would love to play in Brooklyn. He would love to play for Jay-Z. But the Nets won't be playing in Brooklyn for at least a couple of years. And the Nets don't exactly have the greatest team. They flirted with the worst record in NBA history this year. And though Devin Harris, Terrance Williams, and Brook Lopez are all very good young players, their not Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire. Their not even Joe Johnson. I just don't see LeBron choosing New Jersey when he can go anywhere.
What do I think LeBron will do?
LeBron will opt out of his contract in Cleveland and become a free agent on July 1, 2010. LeBron will visit the Knicks, Heat, Nets, Bulls and probably others. The Cavs still have to be the favorite to land LeBron, but I could see their hopes of retaining him diminishing very quickly. If he leaves Cleveland, the teams with the best chance of landing LeBron James are Miami, New York, Chicago and New Jersey in that order.
Stay tuned for my full free agency blog. It will be posted following the NBA Finals.
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Friday, April 16, 2010
Playoff Predictions 2010
Last year, I predicted every single series correctly, except Houston over Portland. As I will this year, I did my predictions through the finals BEFORE the playoffs started.
FIRST ROUND:
East
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Chicago Bulls:
This series is not going to take long, and it is not going to be close. The Bulls gave the Celtics a good run for their money last year in one of the most exciting playoff series ever. That won't happen against the Cavs. LeBron wants a championship, and he is not going to mess around.
My Prediction: Cavaliers in four
(2) Orlando Magic vs (7) Charlotte Bobcats:
The Magic surprised a lot of people last year when they upset LeBron and the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. I was not one of them. The Bobcats are excited to be in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, but they will have to wait until next time to get their first playoff victory.
My Prediction: Magic in four
(3) Atlanta Hawks vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is a tremendous story. Not only did they come out of nowhere and emerge as a team that no one wanted to play, but they did it without a premier player. Michael Redd went down early in the season, and the load fell on rookie Brandon Jennings. Jennings did not just produce, he thrived in the role. And though his scoring from early in the year did not last, Jennings was an absolute sensation for the Bucks. Along with Andrew Bogut, and the late season addition of John Salmons, the Bucks were able to have a great year. With Bogut likely not playing in the first round, the Bucks are not likely to do much damage.
My Prediction: Hawks in five
(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Miami Heat:
First things first... Miami is my hometown, and the Heat are my team. That said, the Celtics are the better team. Dwyane Wade is going to have a crazy (and fun) off-season as the Heat make a run at LeBron James, and look to Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh as a plan B. That off-season will start sooner than later for Miami. The Celtics are old, and not what they were two years ago. They really showed that this season. But the old guys will turn it off for the playoffs, and make it out of the first round.
My Predictions: Celtics in six
West
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Oklahoma City Thunder:
Kobe Bryant! Kevin Durant! The veteran defending champs. The young high flying studs! This series could go four games, or it could go seven, either way, it is going to be a lot of fun to watch! The Thunder are one of the league's most exciting teams to watch, and certainly one of the best stories of the 2009-10 season. But the Lakers are certainly not going down in the first round. Congrats on a great season Thunder!
My Prediction: Lakers in five
(2) Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
The West is deep. The Spurs are the perfect example of that. No one wanted to play them in the first round. Unfortunately for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs, they got em. The Spurs have been there and done that, no mater what it is. They are the most veteran and experienced team in the league. But Dallas did not trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood to go out in the first round.
My Prediction: Dallas in a very tough six
(3) Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers
Phoenix was not expected to be sitting in the three spot when anyone did their preseason predictions. Don't get me wrong, they were no doubt a playoff team. But the three spot? What happened? Steve Nash an Amare Stoudemire happened. And their going to keep happening. With Brandon Roy questionable at best with a knee injury, and the Suns simply being the better team, this series won't last too long.
My Prediction: Suns in five
(4) Denver Nuggets vs (5) Utah Jazz
Denver should have held their ground and been to second or third seed in the West. Unfortunately, George Carl was diagnosed with cancer, and had to leave the team. They have not been the same since. Not only have they lost their mojo, but they have not been able to win on the road. Utah is as tough of a place as their is to play in the NBA. This is going to be a brutally difficult series for both teams.
My Prediction: Denver in seven (Home team wins every game)
SECOND ROUND:
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (4) Boston Celtics
This will not be an easy series for the Cavs. The former champs know what it takes to win, and their not going to go down without a fight. That said, I will take Manny Pacquiao in a fight against Muhammad Ali. Ali may have been the greatest, but at his age and condition, he would not stand a chance. Say goodbye to the Boston Celtics. They had a nice few years.
My Prediction: Cavs in five
(2) Orlando Magic vs (3) Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were very lucky to get the Bogut-less Bucks in the first round. That luck will not continue in the second round. Dwight Howard and the Magic will take care of business here.
My Prediciton: Orlando in five
West
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (4) Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are as talented as any team in the NBA. The possible return of George Carl could be a big spark for Denver. But I am a betting man, and I am betting on the proven commodity. Kobe Bryant takes care of business here.
My Prediction: Lakers in six
(2) Dallas Mavericks vs (3) Phoenix Suns
Friends Dirk Nowitzki and former Maverick Steve Nash will face off again. Nash has Amare. Dirk has everyone else. The Mavs supporting cast will be too much for Phoenix to handle.
My Prediction: Dallas in six
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
East
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (2) Orlando Magic
A rematch of last years great Eastern Conference Finals is coming. The Magic grabbed Vince Carter in the off-season to try to put them over the top. The Cavs grabbed Shaq and Antawn Jamison. And while I think Shaq can be a liability, and belongs coming off the bench, he does provide an experienced leader in the locker room. That said, LeBron is poised to win, and win now. He is not going to let this one slip away.
My Prediction: Cavs in six
West
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (2) Dallas Mavericks
Ron Artest joined the Lakers in the off-season to win a championship. He is the only player on the Lakers roster who was not part of the championship team last season. And I am not so sure that is going to change. The Mavericks have the players to match up with the Lakers at every position. And they also have the amazing sixth man in Jason Terry. It won't be easy, and Ron Artest will have a meltdown, but the Mavs will take it.
My Prediction: Mavs in seven
NBA Finals
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (2) Dallas Mavericks
LeBron wants it! Dirk wants it! Shaq wants it! Jason Kidd wants it! Jamison wants it! Caron wants it! Who does not want it? Everyone plays to win championships. Neither one of these teams is going to go down easily. This could be one of the best NBA Finals in the last decade. As much as LeBron wants it, I think Dallas will find a way.
My Prediction: Dallas in seven
FIRST ROUND:
East
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Chicago Bulls:
This series is not going to take long, and it is not going to be close. The Bulls gave the Celtics a good run for their money last year in one of the most exciting playoff series ever. That won't happen against the Cavs. LeBron wants a championship, and he is not going to mess around.
My Prediction: Cavaliers in four
(2) Orlando Magic vs (7) Charlotte Bobcats:
The Magic surprised a lot of people last year when they upset LeBron and the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. I was not one of them. The Bobcats are excited to be in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, but they will have to wait until next time to get their first playoff victory.
My Prediction: Magic in four
(3) Atlanta Hawks vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is a tremendous story. Not only did they come out of nowhere and emerge as a team that no one wanted to play, but they did it without a premier player. Michael Redd went down early in the season, and the load fell on rookie Brandon Jennings. Jennings did not just produce, he thrived in the role. And though his scoring from early in the year did not last, Jennings was an absolute sensation for the Bucks. Along with Andrew Bogut, and the late season addition of John Salmons, the Bucks were able to have a great year. With Bogut likely not playing in the first round, the Bucks are not likely to do much damage.
My Prediction: Hawks in five
(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Miami Heat:
First things first... Miami is my hometown, and the Heat are my team. That said, the Celtics are the better team. Dwyane Wade is going to have a crazy (and fun) off-season as the Heat make a run at LeBron James, and look to Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh as a plan B. That off-season will start sooner than later for Miami. The Celtics are old, and not what they were two years ago. They really showed that this season. But the old guys will turn it off for the playoffs, and make it out of the first round.
My Predictions: Celtics in six
West
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Oklahoma City Thunder:
Kobe Bryant! Kevin Durant! The veteran defending champs. The young high flying studs! This series could go four games, or it could go seven, either way, it is going to be a lot of fun to watch! The Thunder are one of the league's most exciting teams to watch, and certainly one of the best stories of the 2009-10 season. But the Lakers are certainly not going down in the first round. Congrats on a great season Thunder!
My Prediction: Lakers in five
(2) Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
The West is deep. The Spurs are the perfect example of that. No one wanted to play them in the first round. Unfortunately for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs, they got em. The Spurs have been there and done that, no mater what it is. They are the most veteran and experienced team in the league. But Dallas did not trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood to go out in the first round.
My Prediction: Dallas in a very tough six
(3) Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers
Phoenix was not expected to be sitting in the three spot when anyone did their preseason predictions. Don't get me wrong, they were no doubt a playoff team. But the three spot? What happened? Steve Nash an Amare Stoudemire happened. And their going to keep happening. With Brandon Roy questionable at best with a knee injury, and the Suns simply being the better team, this series won't last too long.
My Prediction: Suns in five
(4) Denver Nuggets vs (5) Utah Jazz
Denver should have held their ground and been to second or third seed in the West. Unfortunately, George Carl was diagnosed with cancer, and had to leave the team. They have not been the same since. Not only have they lost their mojo, but they have not been able to win on the road. Utah is as tough of a place as their is to play in the NBA. This is going to be a brutally difficult series for both teams.
My Prediction: Denver in seven (Home team wins every game)
SECOND ROUND:
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (4) Boston Celtics
This will not be an easy series for the Cavs. The former champs know what it takes to win, and their not going to go down without a fight. That said, I will take Manny Pacquiao in a fight against Muhammad Ali. Ali may have been the greatest, but at his age and condition, he would not stand a chance. Say goodbye to the Boston Celtics. They had a nice few years.
My Prediction: Cavs in five
(2) Orlando Magic vs (3) Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks were very lucky to get the Bogut-less Bucks in the first round. That luck will not continue in the second round. Dwight Howard and the Magic will take care of business here.
My Prediciton: Orlando in five
West
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (4) Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are as talented as any team in the NBA. The possible return of George Carl could be a big spark for Denver. But I am a betting man, and I am betting on the proven commodity. Kobe Bryant takes care of business here.
My Prediction: Lakers in six
(2) Dallas Mavericks vs (3) Phoenix Suns
Friends Dirk Nowitzki and former Maverick Steve Nash will face off again. Nash has Amare. Dirk has everyone else. The Mavs supporting cast will be too much for Phoenix to handle.
My Prediction: Dallas in six
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
East
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (2) Orlando Magic
A rematch of last years great Eastern Conference Finals is coming. The Magic grabbed Vince Carter in the off-season to try to put them over the top. The Cavs grabbed Shaq and Antawn Jamison. And while I think Shaq can be a liability, and belongs coming off the bench, he does provide an experienced leader in the locker room. That said, LeBron is poised to win, and win now. He is not going to let this one slip away.
My Prediction: Cavs in six
West
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (2) Dallas Mavericks
Ron Artest joined the Lakers in the off-season to win a championship. He is the only player on the Lakers roster who was not part of the championship team last season. And I am not so sure that is going to change. The Mavericks have the players to match up with the Lakers at every position. And they also have the amazing sixth man in Jason Terry. It won't be easy, and Ron Artest will have a meltdown, but the Mavs will take it.
My Prediction: Mavs in seven
NBA Finals
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (2) Dallas Mavericks
LeBron wants it! Dirk wants it! Shaq wants it! Jason Kidd wants it! Jamison wants it! Caron wants it! Who does not want it? Everyone plays to win championships. Neither one of these teams is going to go down easily. This could be one of the best NBA Finals in the last decade. As much as LeBron wants it, I think Dallas will find a way.
My Prediction: Dallas in seven
Friday, February 19, 2010
Trade Deadline: Winners and Losers
Cleveland: WINNER
The Cavs had no choice but to make a splash at the deadline. They know that their only chance of hanging onto LeBron James in the off-season is showing him that they will put a championship team around him. But even more importantly, they did their deal without giving up too much. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is expected to be bought out, and return to Cleveland. So in reality, the Cavs traded a very late first round pick for Antawn Jamison and Sabestian Telfair. They executed with perfection at the deadline.
Dallas: WINNER
The Mavs had an extremely successful deadline. They gave up Drew Gooden (who they may end up resigning), Josh Howard, and some scrubs, and ended up with Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson. Butler is a major upgrade over Howard, and Haywood gives them a strong rebounding and shot blocking presence in the paint, as well as some scoring here and there. The Mavs are now a serious threat to challenge the Lakers for western conference supremacy.
Phoenix: LOSER
The Suns were in serious discussions with at least two teams (Cavs & Heat) to trade Amare Stouemire. Apparently, they were unwilling to do a deal with Miami without Michael Beasley or two first round picks being included. And they seemed to be unwilling to work a deal with Cleveland without getting back two first rounders. So in the end, they missed out on the chance to add at least one good young player and a first round pick for a player who will likely leave them in the off-season. Once the Cleveland deal fell apart, and they made their move for Antawn Jamison, Miami had all the bargaining chips.
Miami: WINNER
Winner? Huh? They did not even make a trade! Exactly! Miami had a deal on the table to land Amare Stoudemire, but it was just too costly. It would have been crazy to give up Michael Beasley or two first round picks for a player who they will likely be able to land for nothing (but a huge contract) in the off-season. Pat Riley wanted to make a splash, but he recognized that it was smarter to let things play out over the summer instead. The Heat will be in a much better position next year and beyond for having not traded for Amare now.
Chicago: WINNER
Chicago was able to move John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas for expiring contracts and a first round pick from the Bobcats. They are clearing the cap space they need to pursue Dwyane Wade or another big name free agent in the off-season.
Charlotte: WINNER
Any time you make moves to put your team in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, it is a good thing. Tyrus Thomas should help keep the Bobcats in the thick of things in the east.
Los Angeles Clippers: PUSH
I don't understand what they were doing there. They made a good move in trading Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake. But then they gave away Al Thorton and Sabestian Telfair for essentially nothing. I understand that they want to be in the mix for some big name free agents, but lets be real. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS!
New York: LOSER
I know they cleared cap space to sign LeBron James and Chris Bosh. I know they moved their big contracts for expiring ones. And I also know that they moved WAY down in the first round this year, and gave up next years first round pick to do it. IT WAS TOO MUCH! Lets be real. The chances that LeBron goes to a New York Knicks team that is starting over are slim. If he does not go, that probably hurts the chances of Chris Bosh going too. Knicks fans, prepare to embrace Joe Johnson. He is a great player, but he is not LeBron James or Chris Bosh.
Portland: LOSER
The Blazers gave up a good young talent in Travis Outlaw and a solid point guard in Steve Blake. I know they have depth at the point guard position, but that does not make it a good deal. With Camby make them better this year, yes. Will he put them over the top, no. So they traded a player who can contribute for years for what? A few extra wins this year?
Houston: WINNER
Houston is a big winner to me. They not only landed a great and underrated player in Kevin Martin, but essentially two first round picks from the Knicks. Not only that, but they did it for Carl Landry and Tracy McGrady, who they had sent home anyway. With the exception of Cleveland, who may have positioned themselves to win an NBA Championship, Houston may be the big winner at the trade deadline.
Washington: PUSH
I know the Wizards accomplished their goal of moving Jamison and Butler. I just think they could have done a better job of landing young players and draft picks in return. They did not do a bad job, I just believe that they could have done better.
Boston: WINNER
The Celtics were able to land a very talented backup point guard in Nate Robinson. Even better, they were able to do it without giving up an key pieces of their team. The Robinson trade was a no-brainer.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
NBA Trade Deadline: Good, Bad and Costly
With the NBA trade deadline fast approaching, some NBA GM's did not feel the need to wait before pulling the trigger on their deals. Here is my take on the ones that have happened so far. I will update this blog as more deals are announced on Wednesday and Thursday.
Done Deals:
The Deal: In an effort to quickly remove themselves from the Gilbert Arenas era in Washington, the Wizards shipped Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood along with DeShawn Stevenson to Dallas for the inconsistent Josh Howard, journeyman Drew Gooden and throw-ins Quinton Ross and James Singleton.
My Take: Dallas made out like a bandit. Caron Butler is a big upgrade over Josh Howard. Howard, who was once looked at in Dallas as the possible future of the franchise fell from grace both on and off the court. While he is still a young player who can contribute as either a starter or bench player, he clearly had worn out his welcome in Dallas.
Butler, who I predicted the Lakers would regret shipping to Washington for Kwame Brown in 2005, is a solid force at the small forward position. He is good driving to the basket as well as spotting up from distance.
The part of the deal that does not seem to be getting enough attention is Dallas' upgrade from Drew Gooden to Brendan Haywood. Over 49 games in Washington this season, Haywood averaged 9.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG (4.1 ORB), and 2.1 BPG. He instantly improves the Mavs post game on both the offensive and defensive ends.
DeShawn Stevenson is a very talented shooter who the Mavs will have to find a way to add to their arsenal of perimeter shooters.
The Aftermath: This trade makes Dallas a legitimate threat to the Lakers in the west. And while I do not think that it is enough to beat LA, it is certainly enough to give the Mavericks a real shot at it.
Washington is unloading and making an attempt to essentially start over. I think they made a huge mistake with this deal. While Josh Howard is a good player, he is not Caron Butler. I don't have a problem with Washington unloading Butler, but they could have and should have received draft picks, and younger talent in the deal. However, if they can revive the potential that was once seen in Josh Howard, they will prove me wrong.
The Deal: In order to replace the injured Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, the Portland Trail Blazers sent Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to the Clippers in exchange for Marcus Camby.
My Take: Good deal for the Clippers. Not a horrible deal for the Blazers.
Steve Blake has been a very solid point guard for the Blazers. I understand that with Andre Miller and Jarryd Bayless on the roster, they have depth at the position. I just think that they gave up too much to rent Camby for the remainder of the season. At age 25, Outlaw is a good young player who the Clippers can try to use in their never-ending quest for success.
The Aftermath: I think the Clippers got the better end of this deal. They picked up a solid point guard to backup Baron Davis, and a very talented young forward. They had nothing to lose by trading away Camby. He would have left in the off-season anyway.
The Blazers made a statement with this trade. They clearly want to win now. I just think that that is not realistic. Even with Camby, I still don't see the Blazers getting past LA, Dallas, or San Antonio in the west. They traded away two solid players who could help their team in the future to rent a 35 year old center who they will likely not even attempt to resign after the season.
The Deal: Cleveland gets Antawn Jamison and Sabestian Telfair. Washington gets Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Al Thorton, Brian Skinner and Cleveland's first round draft pick. The Clippers get Drew Gooden.DeShawn Stevenson is a very talented shooter who the Mavs will have to find a way to add to their arsenal of perimeter shooters.
The Aftermath: This trade makes Dallas a legitimate threat to the Lakers in the west. And while I do not think that it is enough to beat LA, it is certainly enough to give the Mavericks a real shot at it.
Washington is unloading and making an attempt to essentially start over. I think they made a huge mistake with this deal. While Josh Howard is a good player, he is not Caron Butler. I don't have a problem with Washington unloading Butler, but they could have and should have received draft picks, and younger talent in the deal. However, if they can revive the potential that was once seen in Josh Howard, they will prove me wrong.
The Deal: In order to replace the injured Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, the Portland Trail Blazers sent Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to the Clippers in exchange for Marcus Camby.
My Take: Good deal for the Clippers. Not a horrible deal for the Blazers.
Steve Blake has been a very solid point guard for the Blazers. I understand that with Andre Miller and Jarryd Bayless on the roster, they have depth at the position. I just think that they gave up too much to rent Camby for the remainder of the season. At age 25, Outlaw is a good young player who the Clippers can try to use in their never-ending quest for success.
The Aftermath: I think the Clippers got the better end of this deal. They picked up a solid point guard to backup Baron Davis, and a very talented young forward. They had nothing to lose by trading away Camby. He would have left in the off-season anyway.
The Blazers made a statement with this trade. They clearly want to win now. I just think that that is not realistic. Even with Camby, I still don't see the Blazers getting past LA, Dallas, or San Antonio in the west. They traded away two solid players who could help their team in the future to rent a 35 year old center who they will likely not even attempt to resign after the season.
My Take: Cleveland clearly felt the need to make a splash at the deadline. Not only are they trying to make a push to win a championship, but they also want to show LeBron James that they are going to build a quality team around him. Washington has now unloaded the last of their Arenas era core in Jamison, and picked up an expiring contract, a quality young player, and a late first round draft pick. The Clipper traded Al Thorton and and Sabestian Telfair for Drew Gooden in this deal. That is the part that I do not get.
The Aftermath: The Cavs must have either felt that their chances of landing Amare Stoudemire were not good, or that the asking price for him was too high. Jamison is not the player that Stoudemire is, but he is still a very good addition to LeBron's supporting cast.
Washinton will continue to go downhill with this deal, but did pick up a quality young player in Al Thorton, and a late first round draft pick. They are tearing down the house so that they can begin to build a new one.
The Clippers are the team that I don't understand here. Al Thorton is a quality player. Sabestian Telfair is a decent backup. Drew Gooden is just an expiring contract. They seem to be unloading to begin a new era as well. I just don't agree with the way they are going about it.
The Cavs are the first winner in this deal, simply because it gives them a better chance to win a championship this year. I do like the trade for Washington as well. I think the Clippers should have stayed out of this one.
Side Note: I do feel for Ilgauskas in this deal. He has spent his entire career suffering through horrible year after horrible year in Cleveland. Now that they are a contender, he gets shipped off as an expiring contract. I hope that he is able to negotiate a buyout with Washington and return to the Cavs after the 30 day waiting period. He deserves to be part of the championship run.
Also, this deal clearly makes an Amare Stoudemire to Miami deal esaier for the Heat. They now know that they are the only real contender for him. They have all the bargaining power. They would have to be crazy to part with Michael Beasley or high draft picks now.
Update: It appears that Zydrunas Ilgauskas will be bought out of his contract. There is also speculation that Drew Gooden will be bought out as well. Early reports are that the Cavs and Mavs would both be interested in signing Ilgauskas, who could draw interest from a number of other team. Dallas also would likely show interest in resigning Drew Gooden. Ilgauskas' agent said this morning that he believes Z's heart is in Cleveland, suggesting that the big man will resign with Cleveland after being bought out by Washington.
The Deal: The Knicks send Darko Milicic to Minnesota in exchange for Brian Cardinal.
My Take: This could very well be the most boring deal of the year. Darko will finish out the year with the Timberwolves, saving the Knicks nearly two million dollars, and Brian Cardinal will likely be waived tomorrow.
The Aftermath: You don't really think I care, do you?
The Deal: The Bull trade John Salmons to the Bucks in exchange for Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander.
My Take: Salmons played well for the Bulls last year after he was acquired along with Brad Miller from the Kings, but he seems to have fallen out of favor in Chicago this year. The Bucks had high hopes for Joe Alexander, but he has never lived up to the hype.
The Aftermath: By trading Salmons for Warrick and Alexander, the Bulls get a decent bench player in Warrick and a player with some development potential in Alexander. The Bucks move on from their mistake in drafting Alexander (No. 8 Overall) and add a player who can contribute now.
The Deal: The Bucks send Jodie Meeks, Francisco Elson and a second round draft pick to the Sixers for Primoz Brezec and Royal Ivey.
My Take: The Sixers picked up Jodie Meeks and a second round pick in this deal. Meeks has some potential. The second round pick could turn into something. Other than that, this deal has not real impact on anything.
The Aftermath: Jodie Meeks either develops or does not. The second round pick either works out, or does not. Even if it does not, the Sixers have nothing to lose here.
The Deal: The Knicks acquire Tracy McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez. The Rockets get Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries, Hilton Armstrong, the Knicks 2012 first round pick, and the right to swap first round picks with New York in 2011. Sacramento gets Carl Landry, Joey Dorsey and Larry Hughes.
My Take: The Knicks got their guy. They gave up a lot for him though. The players they gave up are no big deal. The draft picks are. Houston made out great here by landing Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill and draft picks from the Knicks. Sacramento dumped Martin's contract.
The Aftermath: The Knicks will regret this deal. McGrady is proven not to be a winner, and he is past him prime. They gave up WAY too much for him. Houston made out great. They traded McGrady and Landry for Kevin Martin and draft picks. Martin is a very underrated player, and the Knicks draft picks are going to be high. Sacramento just dumped Martin's contract, which they were clearly unhappy with.
The Deal: Bobcats trade Flip Murray, Acie Law and a protected first round pick to the Bulls for Tyrus Thomas.
My Take: The Bobcats are serious about winning and Thomas gives them a solid shot blocker and thrasher. The Bulls were just happy to be rid of Thomas who never lived up to expectations.
The Aftermath: Thomas should be helpful to the Bobcats push towards their first playoff berth. Chicago will be happy to be rid of the cap space used on Thomas when they attempt to land a big name free agent in the off-season.
The Deal: The Knicks trade Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry to the Celtics in exchange for Eddie House, JR Giddens, and Bill Walker.
My Take: Robinson gives the Celtics the backup point guard that they have been looking for.
The Aftermath: Robinson will give the Celtics a great spark off the bench. And the Knicks have managed to unload another contract, leaving them with four players under contract going into the off-season. They will attempt to sign two max free agents.
The Deal: The Jazz trade Ronnie Brewer to Memphis for a first round pick.
My Take: Brewer is a good addition to Memphis on the defensive side of the ball. He is also very solid driving to the basket.
The Aftermath: The Grizzlies are making their push to stay in the playoff race. They are certainly in the mix of things. Brewer could be a nice contributer for them.
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